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authorThanh Vuong <thanhvg@gmail.com>2019-08-18 23:21:06 -0600
committerThanh Vuong <thanhvg@gmail.com>2019-08-18 23:21:06 -0600
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+<html op="item">
+
+<head>
+ <meta name="referrer" content="origin">
+ <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
+ <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="news.css?tAF4tq9j2V6cVUuRar65">
+ <link rel="shortcut icon" href="favicon.ico">
+ <title>Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf] | Hacker News</title>
+</head>
+
+<body>
+ <center>
+ <table id="hnmain" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="85%"
+ bgcolor="#f6f6ef">
+ <tr>
+ <td bgcolor="#ff6600">
+ <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"
+ style="padding:2px">
+ <tr>
+ <td style="width:18px;padding-right:4px"><a
+ href="https://news.ycombinator.com"><img src="y18.gif"
+ width="18" height="18" style="border:1px white solid;"></a>
+ </td>
+ <td style="line-height:12pt; height:10px;"><span
+ class="pagetop"><b class="hnname"><a href="news">Hacker
+ News</a></b>
+ <a href="newest">new</a> | <a href="front">past</a> | <a
+ href="newcomments">comments</a> | <a href="ask">ask</a> | <a
+ href="show">show</a> | <a href="jobs">jobs</a> | <a
+ href="submit">submit</a> </span></td>
+ <td style="text-align:right;padding-right:4px;"><span
+ class="pagetop">
+ <a href="login?goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363">login</a>
+ </span></td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr id="pagespace" title="Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf]"
+ style="height:10px"></tr>
+ <tr>
+ <td>
+ <table class="fatitem" border="0">
+ <tr class='athing' id='20724363'>
+ <td align="right" valign="top" class="title"><span
+ class="rank"></span></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724363'
+ href='vote?id=20724363&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="title"><a
+ href="http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~kite/doc/von_Neumann_1955.pdf"
+ class="storylink">Can we survive technology? (1955)
+ [pdf]</a><span class="sitebit comhead"> (<a
+ href="from?site=uchicago.edu"><span
+ class="sitestr">uchicago.edu</span></a>)</span></td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr>
+ <td colspan="2"></td>
+ <td class="subtext">
+ <span class="score" id="score_20724363">62 points</span> by <a
+ href="user?id=aidanrocke" class="hnuser">aidanrocke</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20724363">7 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724363"></span> | <a
+ href="hide?id=20724363&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363">hide</a>
+ | <a
+ href="https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Can%20we%20survive%20technology%3F&sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=story&storyText=false&prefix&page=0"
+ class="hnpast">past</a> | <a
+ href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Can%20we%20survive%20technology%3F">web</a>
+ | <a
+ href="fave?id=20724363&amp;auth=33b19c1c456d816b8130681d8038bc03659e9883">favorite</a>
+ | <a href="item?id=20724363">35&nbsp;comments</a> </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr style="height:10px"></tr>
+ <tr>
+ <td colspan="2"></td>
+ <td>
+ <form method="post" action="comment"><input type="hidden"
+ name="parent" value="20724363"><input type="hidden"
+ name="goto" value="item?id=20724363"><input type="hidden"
+ name="hmac"
+ value="6dded8f4002c4457bd16a43bce4e31883a75505c"><textarea
+ name="text" rows="6" cols="60"></textarea>
+ <br><br><input type="submit" value="add comment"></form>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table><br><br>
+ <table border="0" class='comment-tree'>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724657'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724657'
+ href='vote?id=20724657&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=erostrate"
+ class="hnuser">erostrate</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724657">6 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724657"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724657)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&quot;The carbon dioxide
+ released into the atmosphere by industry&#x27;s
+ burning of coal and oil-—more than half of it during
+ the last generation—may have changed the
+ atmosphere&#x27;s composition sufficiently to account
+ for a general warming of the world by about one degree
+ Fahrenheit.&quot;<p>&quot;Even in an airplane the
+ number of vacuum tubes now approaches or exceeds a
+ thousand. Other machines, containing up to 10,000
+ vacuum tubes, up to five times more crystals, and
+ possibly more than 100,000 cores, now operate
+ faultlessly over long periods, performing many
+ millions of regulated, preplanned actions per
+ second, with an expectation of only a few errors per
+ day or week. Many such machines have been built to
+ perform complicated scientific and engineering
+ calculations and large scale accounting and
+ logistical surveys. There is no doubt that they will
+ be used for elaborate industrial process control,
+ logistical, economic, and other
+ planning&quot;</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724657&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724657">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724640'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724640'
+ href='vote?id=20724640&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=the-dude" class="hnuser">the-dude</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724640">6 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724640"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="10" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724640)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&quot;The carbon dioxide
+ released into the atmosphere by industry&#x27;s
+ burning of coal and oil-—more than half of it during
+ the last generation—may have changed the
+ at­mosphere&#x27;s composition sufficiently to account
+ for a general warming of the world by about one degree
+ Fahrenheit. &quot;<p>edit : this PDF looks like it has
+ been scanned, but the text is selectable. Not sure I
+ have seen this before.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724640&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724640">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724763'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724763'
+ href='vote?id=20724763&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;">
+ <span class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=IceWreck" class="hnuser">IceWreck</a>
+ <span class="age">
+ <a href="item?id=20724763">5 hours ago</a>
+ </span>
+ <span id="unv_20724763"></span>
+ <span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="7" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724763)"></a>
+ <span class='storyon'></span>
+ </span>
+ </div>
+ <br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">This is done with OCR,
+ specially when digitizing things.<p>The Internet
+ Archive does this a lot. There was an old 90s book
+ that I needed but they never made an electronic
+ edition. So the internet archive, scanned and
+ digitized it with character recognition to make a
+ select-able PDF like this, as well an epub that can
+ be read on your phone like any other ebook.<p>Now
+ that book is available for anyone to borrow and
+ read. (its still copyrighted so you gotta access
+ it via their DRM controlled app&#x2F;website, but
+ that can be easily broken and its better than not
+ having access to that book at all)</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724763&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724763">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724789'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724789'
+ href='vote?id=20724789&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=the-dude" class="hnuser">the-dude</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724789">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724789"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="6" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724789)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Thanks for the heads-up. Of
+ course I do know what OCR is. Just hadn&#x27;t seen it
+ combined in the wild like this.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724789&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724789">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724935'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724935'
+ href='vote?id=20724935&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=rayiner" class="hnuser">rayiner</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724935">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724935"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="5" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724935)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Acrobat has had this as a
+ built in feature forever.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724935&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724935">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725011'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="160">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725011'
+ href='vote?id=20725011&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=the-dude" class="hnuser">the-dude</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725011">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725011"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="2" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725011)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Didn&#x27;t know that either.
+ Makes me wonder if my browser ( PDF.js ) is doing the
+ OCR? Anybody knows?</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725011&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725011">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725617'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="200">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725617'
+ href='vote?id=20725617&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=philipkglass"
+ class="hnuser">philipkglass</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725617">3 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725617"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725617)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">He means that Acrobat Pro
+ includes an OCR system that you can use to add a
+ searchable text layer to scanned documents. Readers
+ like Acrobat Reader and PDF.js do not perform OCR. You
+ won&#x27;t be able to use them to search scanned
+ documents if the document creator did not run OCR.<p>
+ Google runs its own OCR pass on scanned PDF
+ documents in order to index them better. It can be
+ annoying when you get a 50 page scanned document as
+ a search result and then find out that it
+ doesn&#x27;t include a text layer, so you need to
+ run your own OCR or skim the whole thing to find the
+ relevant parts.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725617&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725617">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725206'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="160">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725206'
+ href='vote?id=20725206&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=agumonkey"
+ class="hnuser">agumonkey</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725206">4 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725206"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725206)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">True, but as parent, I
+ realized that only very recently.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725206&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725206">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725003'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="160">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725003'
+ href='vote?id=20725003&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=alttab" class="hnuser">alttab</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725003">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725003"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725003)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c5a">Guy&#x27;s login is
+ &quot;the-dude,&quot; he&#x27;s been around for a
+ while.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725003&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725003">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724688'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724688'
+ href='vote?id=20724688&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=leggomylibro"
+ class="hnuser">leggomylibro</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724688">6 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724688"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724688)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">It&#x27;s called Optical
+ Character Recognition:<p><a
+ href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Optical_character_recognition"
+ rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Optical_character_recognition</a>
+ <p>One of the few applications where ML-based image
+ recognition actually works reliably enough for
+ real-world applications; the USPS has been using
+ neural nets to read zip codes for decades.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724688&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724688">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20726063'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20726063'
+ href='vote?id=20726063&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=dinofacedude"
+ class="hnuser">dinofacedude</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20726063">2 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20726063"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20726063)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">You see it a lot in academic
+ databases</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20726063&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320726063">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724751'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724751'
+ href='vote?id=20724751&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=damidekronik"
+ class="hnuser">damidekronik</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724751">5 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724751"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="20"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724751)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&quot;Consequently, a few
+ decades hence energy may be free—just
+ like the unmetered air—with coal and oil used mainly
+ as raw materials for organic chemical synthesis, to
+ which, as experience has shown, their properties are
+ best suited.&quot;<p>I am wondering why this
+ prediction is so off given how other ones are spot
+ on? How the situation back then made John von
+ Neumann believe it, and what happened differently,
+ moving this into the realms of fantasy.<p>Perhaps if
+ an another effort of a scale of the Manhattan
+ Project had happened, the concept of the
+ &quot;free energy&quot; would have been more
+ realistic.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724751&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724751">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724814'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724814'
+ href='vote?id=20724814&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=jaysonelliot"
+ class="hnuser">jaysonelliot</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724814">5 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724814"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="11"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724814)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&quot;Too cheap to
+ meter&quot; was a common assumption about the future
+ of nuclear power when it first began. If you only look
+ at the amount of power available based on the raw
+ materials, it&#x27;s a reasonable prediction.<p>They
+ simply didn&#x27;t take into account all of the
+ associated costs and complexities that would be
+ involved with the actual nuclear power plants, not
+ to mention the political and social complications.
+ <p>That doesn&#x27;t mean such a future can never
+ happen, it&#x27;s theoretically possible.
+ We&#x27;re simply in a place right now where
+ it&#x27;s hard to imagine with our current level
+ of technology and our current energy
+ economy.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724814&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724814">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724911'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724911'
+ href='vote?id=20724911&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=rayiner" class="hnuser">rayiner</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724911">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724911"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="6" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724911)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">They didn’t expect that
+ government regulation would kill innovation in the
+ nuclear industry. If nuclear plants had not been
+ regulated so highly decades ago, we’d have abundant,
+ clean power today. We may have had hundreds of
+ thousands more dead from nuclear accidents, but that
+ would pale in comparison to the tens of millions saved
+ by phasing out coal earlier and pushing off climate
+ change.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724911&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724911">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724915'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724915'
+ href='vote?id=20724915&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=dragonwriter"
+ class="hnuser">dragonwriter</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724915">5 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724915"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="2"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724915)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&gt; They didn’t expect that
+ government regulation would kill innovation in the
+ nuclear industry. If nuclear plants had not been
+ regulated so highly decades ago, we’d have abundant,
+ clean power today.<p>The regulation is basically a
+ liability shield and subsidy, the industry wants
+ more, not less, of it to build plants.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724915&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724915">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724947'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="160">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724947'
+ href='vote?id=20724947&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=rayiner" class="hnuser">rayiner</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724947">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724947"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724947)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">That doesn’t mean that
+ regulation doesn’t impede innovation, e.g. by
+ eliminating the incentive to adopt safer cycles.
+ Moreover, the onerous review of reactor designs means
+ there is a high incentive to stick with older designs
+ that have already been reviewed by the government.
+ (Thats a double whammy, because it makes newer, safer
+ designs harder to deploy while reducing the incentive
+ to deploy them.)</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724947&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724947">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725351'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725351'
+ href='vote?id=20725351&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=dctoedt" class="hnuser">dctoedt</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725351">4 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725351"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725351)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&gt; <i>If nuclear plants had
+ not been regulated so highly decades ago, we’d have
+ abundant, clean power today. We may have had
+ hundreds of thousands more dead from nuclear
+ accidents, but that would pale in comparison to the
+ tens of millions saved by phasing out coal earlier
+ and pushing off climate change.</i>
+ <p>And if wishes were horses .... It&#x27;s hard to
+ imagine how any democratic society could have gotten
+ past the salience bias to make that happen. (Also,
+ there&#x27;s the better-the-devil-you-know
+ familiarity bias working in coal&#x27;s favor, to
+ say nothing of the political influence of voters
+ depending directly or indirectly on coal for their
+ livelihoods.)<p>EDIT: This also brought to mind the
+ trolley problem [0], with the added wrinkle that
+ it&#x27;s not possible to predict with any
+ confidence which specific persons would actually
+ be injured or killed.<p>[0] <a
+ href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Trolley_problem"
+ rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Trolley_problem</a>
+ </span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725351&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725351">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725695'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725695'
+ href='vote?id=20725695&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=jodrellblank"
+ class="hnuser">jodrellblank</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725695">3 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725695"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="2"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725695)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00"><i>If nuclear plants had not
+ been regulated so highly decades ago, we’d have
+ abundant, clean power today.</i>
+ <p>Are African and Latin American countries with less
+ effective governments and less regulation are
+ leading the world in innovation, cheap nuclear
+ power, genetic engineering and so on?<p>A casual
+ disregard for the living and a &quot;happily ever
+ after&quot; fairy tale correlates pretty well with
+ a lot of cult and religious behaviours, and
+ associated human tragedies, but not very well with
+ actual happily ever after, I think.
+ </span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725695&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725695">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725825'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="160">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725825'
+ href='vote?id=20725825&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=rayiner" class="hnuser">rayiner</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725825">2 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725825"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725825)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Low regulation is a necessary
+ but not sufficient condition for innovation. You also
+ need the predicate technologies, precision
+ manufacturing capabilities, etc. But within the US,
+ where we have those things, loosely regulated
+ industries (like the Internet) have consistently
+ evolved faster than heavily regulated ones.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725825&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725825">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724847'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724847'
+ href='vote?id=20724847&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=damidekronik"
+ class="hnuser">damidekronik</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724847">5 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724847"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724847)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Yea, that is of my
+ understanding too. There was no need for any great
+ advance in that matter at the time. Now however, the
+ situation is different, and yet, not as pressing as
+ the global conflict back then to fund another
+ &quot;Los Alamos&quot;.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724847&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724847">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725187'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725187'
+ href='vote?id=20725187&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=agumonkey"
+ class="hnuser">agumonkey</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725187">4 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725187"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725187)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">I wonder if they had the
+ &#x27;capacity paradox&#x27; in mind, where the more
+ you can have, you more you will use. In the 50s energy
+ usage were quite minuscule compared to today I
+ think.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725187&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725187">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724819'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724819'
+ href='vote?id=20724819&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=DanBC" class="hnuser">DanBC</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20724819">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724819"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="2" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724819)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">&gt; We&#x27;re simply in a
+ place right now where it&#x27;s hard to imagine with
+ our current level of technology and our current energy
+ economy.<p>...and the fact we have about 4bn more
+ people here than we did in 1960.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724819&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724819">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725328'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725328'
+ href='vote?id=20725328&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=dragonwriter"
+ class="hnuser">dragonwriter</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725328">4 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725328"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725328)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">We have far fewer people than
+ growth rate at the time suggested; IIRC, around that
+ time growth was viewed as exponential with a doubling
+ period of ~35 years, had it continued the population
+ would be 10.74 bn now, nearly 1.5× what it.<p>So, no,
+ population (at least <i>high</i> population)
+ isn&#x27;t something that was unforeseen.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725328&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725328">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725454'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725454'
+ href='vote?id=20725454&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=carapace" class="hnuser">carapace</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725454">3 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725454"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725454)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">The sequestration of atomic
+ technology (not just power) is one of the rare areas
+ where the interests of the good guys and bad guys
+ coincide.<p>Energy <i>is</i> free: we have a fusion
+ generator that runs 24&#x2F;7 with no maintenance
+ and is so powerful it can burn out your retinas from
+ 150 million kilometers away.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725454&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725454">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724797'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724797'
+ href='vote?id=20724797&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=tim58" class="hnuser">tim58</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20724797">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724797"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724797)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">This was before Chernobyl,
+ and without Chernobyl the industrialized world would
+ probably be mainly on nuclear fission power by now.<p>
+ This was also at a time when nuclear fusion energy
+ was theoretically possible but before half a century
+ of research has labeled the problem &#x27;very
+ hard&#x27;.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724797&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724797">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725213'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725213'
+ href='vote?id=20725213&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=CamouflagedKiwi"
+ class="hnuser">CamouflagedKiwi</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20725213">4 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725213"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725213)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Sounds a bit like the Jevons
+ paradox - we improve the efficiency of energy
+ consumption, but it does not result in it being free,
+ because demand increases to counter.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725213&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725213">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724994'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724994'
+ href='vote?id=20724994&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=Spooky23" class="hnuser">Spooky23</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724994">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724994"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724994)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Demand increased
+ dramatically.<p>If federal mortgage rules empathized
+ solar, you’d see near free energy production in
+ residential in a decade or two.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724994&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724994">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725247'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725247'
+ href='vote?id=20725247&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=philipkglass"
+ class="hnuser">philipkglass</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725247">4 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725247"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725247)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">He made other incorrect
+ predictions in the same document. We continue to
+ (incidentally and carelessly) change the climate, but
+ have yet to achieve anything like the reliably
+ controllable weather he anticipated.<p>He also
+ incorrectly anticipated that atomic transmutation of
+ the elements would become a bigger trend than
+ chemical rearrangement of existing elements.<p>
+ &quot;It is worth emphasizing that the main trend
+ will be systematic exploration of nuclear
+ reactions — that is, the transmutation of
+ elements, or alchemy rather than chemistry.&quot;
+ <p>As for why he was mistaken about nuclear power,
+ it&#x27;s possible that he was extrapolating
+ from the fantastically rapid progress of nuclear
+ weapons technology. Fission was demonstrated in
+ 1938, the first chain reaction in 1942, the
+ first fission weapon in 1945. The first megaton
+ scale thermonuclear explosion was demonstrated
+ in 1952 and serial production of thermonuclear
+ weapons began in 1954. Between 1944 and 1954 the
+ explosive power of the largest military bombs
+ went up by a factor of roughly <i>two
+ million</i> [1] [2]. There was a 2300-fold
+ leap from Grand Slam to Little Boy (6.5 tons TNT
+ equivalent to 15 kilotons) and another
+ thousand-fold leap from Little Boy to Castle
+ Bravo (15 kilotons to 15 megatons).<p>The
+ challenges of making useful power reactors for
+ electricity production are much different.
+ Civilian power reactors have to compete with
+ other electricity sources on cost. They have
+ to produce power for decades rather than a
+ fraction of a second. They are expected to
+ fully contain fission products rather than
+ disperse them widely as fallout. Recall that
+ at the time of this writing, 1955, no country
+ had yet built a power reactor comparable in
+ output to large coal or hydroelectric plants.
+ There had only been some small demonstrations
+ like the 2 megawatts of electricity produced
+ by the BORAX-III reactor. The actual
+ difficulties to be encountered at larger
+ scales were not yet known.<p>Finally,
+ &quot;affordable&quot; electricity was a
+ moving target. In constant dollars, large
+ American industrial buyers were paying 40%
+ less per megawatt hour in 1970 than they
+ were in 1950 [3]. Concerns about acutely
+ hazardous air pollution were not yet
+ widespread enough to justify a cost premium
+ over fossil-generated power. Widespread
+ concerns about greenhouse gas emissions were
+ even further off.<p>[1] <a
+ href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Grand_Slam_(bomb)"
+ rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Grand_Slam_(bomb)</a>
+ <p>[2] <a
+ href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Mark_17_nuclear_bomb"
+ rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Mark_17_nuclear_bomb</a>
+ <p>[3] <a
+ href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.census.gov&#x2F;history&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;histstats-colonial-1970.pdf"
+ rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.census.gov&#x2F;history&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;histstats-colonial-1970.p...</a>
+ - page 827</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725247&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725247">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725001'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725001'
+ href='vote?id=20725001&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=n-exploit"
+ class="hnuser">n-exploit</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725001">5 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725001"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="3"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725001)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c73">Within the U.S. - we live in
+ a profit-maximizing capitalist structure. Why would
+ any economic entity give something away for free when
+ a profit can be made?</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725001&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725001">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725134'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="80"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725134'
+ href='vote?id=20725134&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=al3xandre"
+ class="hnuser">al3xandre</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20725134">4 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20725134"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="2"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725134)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Competition pushing price
+ down to a near-zero cost base? like the $1
+ microcontroller you can buy today.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725134&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725134">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725272'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="120">
+ </td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725272'
+ href='vote?id=20725272&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=hhh" class="hnuser">hhh</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20725272">4 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725272"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725272)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">or the one cent
+ microcontroller you can buy today.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725272&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725272">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724835'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724835'
+ href='vote?id=20724835&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=hi41" class="hnuser">hi41</a> <span
+ class="age"><a href="item?id=20724835">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724835"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724835)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">I remember the immortal words
+ of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. about man being able to
+ master technology and yet not have have grown
+ comparably enough in spirituality to live as
+ brothers.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724835&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724835">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724368'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724368'
+ href='vote?id=20724368&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=aidanrocke"
+ class="hnuser">aidanrocke</a> <span class="age"><a
+ href="item?id=20724368">7 hours ago</a></span>
+ <span id="unv_20724368"></span><span
+ class="par"></span> <a class="togg" n="1"
+ href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724368)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">For the kind of explosiveness
+ that man
+ will be able to contrive by 1980, the globe
+ is dangerously small, its political units
+ dangerously unstable.-John von Neumann</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724368&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724368">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20724750'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="0"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20724750'
+ href='vote?id=20724750&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=c3534l" class="hnuser">c3534l</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20724750">5 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20724750"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="2" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20724750)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">I&#x27;m not sure if there
+ ever existed a man as ahead of his time as Von
+ Neumann.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20724750&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320724750">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ <tr class='athing comtr ' id='20725525'>
+ <td>
+ <table border='0'>
+ <tr>
+ <td class='ind'><img src="s.gif" height="1" width="40"></td>
+ <td valign="top" class="votelinks">
+ <center><a id='up_20725525'
+ href='vote?id=20725525&amp;how=up&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363'>
+ <div class='votearrow' title='upvote'></div>
+ </a></center>
+ </td>
+ <td class="default">
+ <div style="margin-top:2px; margin-bottom:-10px;"><span
+ class="comhead">
+ <a href="user?id=carapace" class="hnuser">carapace</a>
+ <span class="age"><a href="item?id=20725525">3 hours
+ ago</a></span> <span
+ id="unv_20725525"></span><span class="par"></span>
+ <a class="togg" n="1" href="javascript:void(0)"
+ onclick="return toggle(event, 20725525)"></a> <span
+ class='storyon'></span>
+ </span></div><br>
+ <div class="comment">
+ <span class="commtext c00">Da Vinci? Bucky Fuller?<p>
+ Legend has it that when Gödel presented &quot;On the
+ Completeness of the Logical Calculus&quot; von
+ Neumann threw in the towel (on Hilbert&#x27;s
+ program) on the spot.</span>
+ <div class='reply'>
+ <p>
+ <font size="1">
+ <u><a
+ href="reply?id=20725525&amp;goto=item%3Fid%3D20724363%2320725525">reply</a></u>
+ </font>
+ </div>
+ </div>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ </td>
+ </tr>
+ </table>
+ <br><br>
+ </td>
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